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Continued weak yen may create new problems even after US-Japan intervention_我的网站

绿茶婊

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Illustration: Xia Qing/GT
The yen has weakened in recent days, edging closer to the psychologically important 160 level against the US dollar. The decline comes despite the widely watched move by Washington to join Tokyo in supporting the currency. Less than two weeks after the US-Japan intervention, the yen has given up roughly half of its gains, raising fresh questions over the effectiveness of coordinated efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.
Japan and the US had previously confirmed coordinated foreign exchange intervention to prop up the yen after the currency tumbled to a nearly 40-year low. At the time, some observers saw the move as potentially stabilizing the yen in the short term, although its longer-term impact remained uncertain.
However, the subsequent market reaction suggests that even the short-term effect may have been limited. After strengthening to about 155 per dollar in the days following the intervention from above 163, the yen had slipped back above 159 by Wednesday, less than two weeks later.
Questions have emerged over whether further support for the yen may soon be needed, and whether Washington would consider stepping in again. The previous intervention was seen by some observers as a test of market confidence: the unusual coordinated move had the potential to influence market expectations and discourage bets against the yen. But if market expectations remain largely unchanged, repeated interventions could deliver diminishing returns. The US may face a difficult trade-off. Another intervention could require greater resources and come at a higher cost, while refraining from further action could raise questions over the lasting impact of the previous effort.
Market commentary has added to the uncertainty. Axios published a report headlined "Yen's weakness shows market isn't done pushing," while some reports suggested that the impact of the US-Japan intervention was beginning to fade. Such narratives could weigh on sentiment toward the yen and reinforce market expectations that the currency's weakness may persist.
Washington's involvement in supporting the yen may reflect broader economic and policy considerations. These could include avoiding a scenario in which Japan sells US Treasury holdings to support the currency, as well as concerns that a weaker yen could give Japanese exporters a greater competitive advantage. These possible considerations suggest that the intervention alone does not fully address the underlying forces behind the yen's weakness. This may help explain why the market has so far been reluctant to view the move as a turning point for the currency.
Washington's decision to join the intervention may have reflected concerns, as some observers suggest, that the yen's prolonged weakness had begun to affect US interests. If markets remain unconvinced by the US-Japan intervention, one possible outcome is that Washington could push Japan to take more costly measures to support the yen. Such a scenario could instead create some strain between Washington and Tokyo.
Beyond short-term market dynamics, the yen's weakness also reflects deeper challenges facing the Japanese economy, making a sustained reversal difficult. The currency's prolonged weakness has been influenced by the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, while also reflecting longer-term concerns over the diminishing returns of Japan's traditional growth model.
This leaves Japan facing a delicate policy balance between supporting growth and stabilizing the currency. While lower interest rates could help boost economic activity, continued weakness in the yen may strengthen calls for Japan's central bank to consider further rate increases to narrow the interest rate gap with the US.
Japan's structural challenges mean that a sustained appreciation of the yen will not be easy to achieve. The question of whether to pursue stronger measures, even at the cost of some economic growth, has become more complicated as the US takes a role in the issue. Japan may face greater pressure to support the currency, even though doing so would be difficult and could carry broader economic costs.
The author is a reporter with the Global Times. [email protected]

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          　　今日，名记Jake Fischer在Bleacher Report节目中谈到了科怀·伦纳德的相关情况。

    　　一直有消息称，NBA联盟将在未来几周内就相关调查做出结论。此前一段时间，我从多位知情人士那里听说，调查结果可能在9月之前出炉。但后来又有消息提醒我，不必过分乐观——不过，在训练营开始前，或者说在12月中旬的某个时间节点，调查得出结果依然是相当现实且有可能的。届时，联盟的处罚决定和相应措施将会公之于众。

    　　我所看到的唯一可能阻碍伦纳德方面及其乐观且雄心勃勃时间表（即他能在训练营期间加入猛龙）的因素，就是联盟对快船开出重磅罚单。

二 | 快船方面始终坚持他们没有任何违规行为，任何关于规避工资帽的表象都仅仅是表象而已。因此，我获得的所有信息都表明，如果快船真的受到某种重大处罚，他们将就此与NBA启动仲裁程序。

三 | 他们准备捍卫自己的声誉，寻求公正。

    　　那么，在这种情况下，联盟是否愿意将对快船的处罚与伦纳德的交易审批结果分开处理，将成为一个关键区别——尤其是猛龙只是在等待交易完成，以便有可能避免因伦纳德而承担处罚。因此，如果处罚只针对快船，而不涉及伦纳德，那么我认为交易将会通过，快船则会单独启动与联盟的仲裁程序，在和解或诉讼的框架下进行抗争。但也存在另一种可能性：如果伦纳德受到的处罚与快船不同，或者反过来，那么快船可以进入仲裁程序，而伦纳德则可以前往猛龙。

    　　总而言之，据多位知情人士透露，科怀·伦纳德坚信他将在训练营期间有资格加入猛龙，因为联盟的调查会在9月中旬的某个时间点结束，并且处罚决定也将在此后不久公布并执行。